Federal Reserve Gives Notice

Paraphrasing a Report by Jim Sinclair:

On a recent televised interview, Mr. Peter G. Peterson, a man of such stature that when speaking on financial TV reporters and/or producers who don’t like his script cannot interrupt him. That is not to say that the drop dead, beautiful interviewer did not try her best to place words in his mouth. That strategy fell flat on its face.

Mr. Peterson is the Chairman and one of the founders of the outrageously successful Blackstone Group. He is Chairman of the Council of Foreign Relations, founding Chairman of the Institute of International Economics (Washington DC), founding President of the Concord Coalition. Mr. Peterson was the Co-Chair of the Conference Board Commission on Public Trust and Private enterprises (Co-Chaired by John Snow, currently Secretary of the US Treasury). He was Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from 2000 to 2004.

Mr. Peterson spoke of his close and personal relationship with Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan. He made many extremely important points in his interview:

1. He spoke of three serious deficits, the Budget Deficit, Trade Deficit and what he considered to
be the most important, the Current Account Deficit.
2. He added to these deficits what he considered to be just as important, the deficit in personal
savings by US consumers.
3. He pointed out that a cumulative Budget Deficit of US$7 trillion was looming in this generation.
4. He spoke of Chairman Volcker's opinion on a lower US dollar.
5. He spoke of a prestigious group of 12 people and their views on the US dollar of which 11 expect it to go between 10 and 15 percentage points lower.
6. He pointed out that a Current Account Deficit running at 6 ½ percent of GDP must be considered as another cumulative item that will result in a foreign debt equal to 125% of a single
year's GDP.
7. He pointed out that the servicing cost of this debt is a factor and possibly the most serious
concern.
8. He concluded with the comment that expectation that international entities will continue to support this growth and the cumulative nature of the Current Account Deficit by purchasing US debt is not necessarily guaranteed.

Grimacing as Mr. Petersen reviewed the economic scene, she mustered all the courage she had and then sited the popular theory that the Current Account Deficit was less than meaningful because the powerful US economy would simply "grow out of it." With the masterful stroke of a man of unquestioned intelligence, experience, success, and integrity, Mr. Petersen dismissed that soft theory firmly.

His dismissal had the same impact as Brave Heart's lancers as they cut through the English heavy cavalry. Brave Heart's lance was of simple construction but it effectively ended the era of British heavy horse military dominance. Mr. Petersen put the party line "grow out of it" statement into its proper classification and buried it six feet under.

His interview was the most measured, articulate, non-emotional, sound analysis of the various complex conditions leading towards an epiphany for investors that will impact markets with the significance of Tsunami from 2006 to 2008 and then from 2009 to 2012.

The beautiful lady interviewer - visibly unsettled - broke for an advertising sponsor promising to have Mr. Peterson back. We have not seen Mr. Petersen yet.