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Ex-Fed Chief Volcker: Most Dangerous Economy
Ever |
In a recent speech,
former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker voiced
his concerns for the future the American economy and
that of the rest of the world.
Among other things, Volcker warns of a possibly
dramatic shift in the relationship between U.S.
consumerism and foreign investment - and the dire
consequences that would have on Americans.
Some focal points of his speech:
In regard to the U.S. economy, Volcker sees
"disturbing trends: huge imbalances, disequilibria,
risks..."
He says these are the most dangerous economic
conditions he has ever seen - and, he notes, he has
seen "quite a lot." Though businesses are
rebuilding their financial reserves, in only a few
years, the federal deficit
has offset all that savings.Home ownership has
become a vehicle for borrowing rather than a means
of financial security.
In the U.S., we consume and invest about 6% more
than we produce.
The U.S. economy is held together by a foreign
capital influx of over $2 billion each day.
Foreign competition has kept interest rates
relatively low despite vanishing savings and rapid
growth.
He says: "The difficulty is that this seemingly
comfortable pattern can't go on indefinitely. I
don't know of any country that has managed to
consume and invest 6% more than it produces for
long. The United States is absorbing about 80
percent of the net flow of international capital.
And at some point, both central banks and private
institutions will have their fill of dollars.
Volcker's says that to solve the economic crisis:
"China and other continental Asian economies should
permit and encourage a substantial exchange rate
appreciation against the dollar. Japan
and Europe should work promptly and aggressively
toward domestic stimulus and deal more effectively
and speedily with structural obstacles to growth.
And the United States, by some combination of
measures, should forcibly increase its rate of
internal saving, thereby reducing
its import demand."
Volcker says "I don't know whether change will come
with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner or later.
But as things stand, it is more likely than not that
it will be financial crises rather than policy
foresight that will force the change." |